jueves, 4 de octubre de 2007

Missed opportunities and a possible fix?

Todays Profit 98.69

It started as a very frustrating day trading wise, so I am delighted to be showing a profit again today.
I had a win on the Innings runs on the cricket of about 50 quid, I then gave it back in the second half when Sri Lanka were chasing Englands total. I had initially backed England then quickly changed my mind, I still dont know why as a wicket would have seen the England price drop sharply. Inevitably this happened and I couldnt really get back on. I decided to let my loss run, as I would risk getting bigger red on England and we all know they arent the greatest of one day teams.

After that I turned to tennis, traded the Ivanovic v Bondanerenko match well. She was 1 set down so got on at 1.65 knowing that there would be a good swing in her price if she was to break or hold serve. This happened and she was quickly trading at sub 1.3 (I think she started the match around 1.0x) The good thing in tennis is that if favourites have a bad first set there are huge fluctuations in price if they start to do well. Anyway got out at 1.25 and went for lunch just after she won the second set feeling pretty pleased with myself, couldnt believe it when I came back and she had lost. Got 47 out of it but had a bigger green if she had won.
I went on to lose 42 of that on the Jankovic match, started off on her and then panicked as I had to go out so laid off to have a red on both sides. She ended up winning but I wouldnt risk leaving an open position.

As I said in an earlier post I am on holiday in Spain at the moment at my girlfriends parents house so was meeting up with her and a friend for coffee. Was about 5 quid up on the day and it had seemed like I had been trading all day for no reward. The break did me good though and I got stuck in to the Murray match when I got back. Backed him at 1.4 and let it run, dont often do that but thought he would have too much for Llodra. Had a look at what I could steal in the UEFA Cup after that, backed Everton at 1.07 with 2 minutes to go, made 11 on u4.5 in the Blackburn game. Odds were at 1.12 with about 7 minutes left so bloody good in my book. The u3.5 market was trading around 1.37 at the time so could have got out with a small loss if a goal had went in before I had traded out. Then found a gift of a price of 1.05 for Larissa to qualify when it was the 90th minute and Blackburn needed two goals, so I lumped on there.

Picked up a tenner in the O´Sullivan v Davis match in the snooker, then had a shower. The Kholscriber v T´song match was still on in Stuttgart with T´song at 1.05 needing to win a game for the match. I wouldnt normally have got involved but had noticed the strange prices when looking at the market earlier in the match. Kohl was a set up and was trading at 1.9 for the beginning of his service games, now I didnt have pictures so wasnt able to see if there was anything physically wrong with him but in this situation I would have expected him to be around 1.4 or lower. I believe that they were quite close in the pricing at the start. Had a look at the Betfair forum and it wasnt just me that was thinking something funny was going on. I have seen matches before where the market holds someones price up and they go on to win but wasnt prepared to get involved here. Having lost his first point in a service game his odds went out to 2.16 considering he was a set up it was a bit strange. Anyway had a shower, saw that he had been beaten in a tie break for the second and was a break down in the third so I backed T´song at the short price, I traded out at 1.01 so at least I had my stake back if Betfair were going to investigate any irregular patterns. Anyway as I type there are forumites emailing the ATP and Betfair about possible match fixing. You normally get people calling every game a fix when they have done their conkers but they may have something to complain about here. Anyway Betfair settled and I have my profit.

Going to withdraw my profit and bring my bank back to 200 for tomorrows trading.

Good luck and stay profitable

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